NVIDIA just closed its longest winning streak in two years, and the stock is still sitting nearly 8% below its all-time high. That gap matters for investors trying to decide what comes next.
Why NVDA Has Been Surging
The clearest driver: Meta recently added $21 billion to a previous $14 billion deal with CoreWeave to expand AI compute capacity, with infrastructure set to include Nvidia's next-generation Vera Rubin rack-scale systems. CNBC That single deal alone signals just how aggressively Big Tech is locking in access to Nvidia hardware before supply tightens further.
It doesn't stop there. Major tech companies including Meta, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft have been scrambling to secure Nvidia's advanced chips, driving data center revenue up 75% year-over-year — a segment that now makes up 88% of Nvidia's total business. GuruFocus Five years ago, gaming was the primary revenue source. That structural shift is exactly the kind of durable trend long-term investors want to see.
On the innovation side, Nvidia is also expanding its AI product lineup by launching new open-source models designed specifically for quantum computing, including the "Ising" model, which is aimed at enhancing the practicality of quantum systems. GuruFocus
Market Context
The broader market backdrop was also supportive on April 14. U.S. stocks gained as optimism grew around potential negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, which contributed to a decline in oil prices below $92 — a relief for inflation-sensitive markets. GuruFocus This helped lift risk sentiment broadly, giving momentum stocks like NVDA additional tailwind.
What Valuation Says
Despite the run-up, NVDA's current price of around $196 sits within a 52-week range of $95 to $212, and over the past year the stock has gained roughly 77.5%. GuruFocus At the same time, independent analysis places its fair value estimate significantly higher than where it trades today — suggesting the stock isn't obviously overpriced even after the streak.
Investment Strategy & Timing Outlook
For long-term investors already holding, the structural case for NVDA remains intact. The Bullish trend zone has been in place for 6 days, with a cumulative return of 10.6% from the entry point at $177.6 — and the probability of shifting to a Bearish zone within the next 10 days is near zero.
That said, short-term traders should note that the near-term setup calls for caution. The next ideal selling window is expected around April 14–15, near the $197 range. The next anticipated buying opportunity is projected around April 22–23, near $188.5 — offering a potential re-entry at a discount.
One structural nuance worth noting: NVDA's correlation with the broader U.S. market is relatively high at 83%. It is advisable to respond while paying attention to market changes.
One-Line Summary
NVDA's 10-day streak is backed by real demand — but short-term traders should eye the $188 range as the smarter entry, not chase the current high.
For a more precise market timing framework, refer to the latest SPR Daily Report. VIEW SPR DAILY REPORT →
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