Date: Mon, Feb 23, 2026 at 8:05 PM
Subject: U.S. Market Weekly Outlook and Key External Risk Factors
Dear SPR Premium Subscribers,
I would like to provide a review of last week’s U.S. market performance and outline our outlook for the week ahead.
First, last week’s daily trend unfolded largely in line with our prior expectations, maintaining a rebound trajectory without significant deviation. However, on the weekly timeframe, the market remains within a broader corrective phase. While downside pressure has been relatively limited, price action has been characterized by mixed upward and downward fluctuations, suggesting an early-stage attempt to transition toward a new bullish structure within an ongoing correction.
As previously mentioned, the current movement reflects a moderation of the corrective trend rather than a confirmed shift into a sustained bullish phase. At this stage, we continue to expect a more definitive trend reversal toward the upside to potentially emerge around early March. In the near term, there remains a meaningful possibility of re-entering a Bearish zone on the weekly chart. Therefore, heightened short-term volatility should be anticipated and managed carefully.
Importantly, two major external variables have recently emerged that could significantly influence U.S. equity markets:
Trump Reciprocal Tariff Ruling
Following the court ruling that deemed the reciprocal tariff measures unlawful, President Trump announced a new global tariff initiative, thereby reintroducing policy uncertainty into the market. This development increases ambiguity surrounding future trade policy direction and may weigh on investor sentiment in the near term.Rising Geopolitical Tensions with Iran
Reports indicate that the U.S. government is reviewing military options regarding Iran, with discussions extending beyond limited strikes to the possibility of more forceful actions. This escalation in geopolitical risk has the potential to inject additional uncertainty into financial markets.
Since Friday and over the weekend, media coverage related to these two issues has expanded significantly, with various scenarios and risk assessments being discussed. As a result, it is highly likely that investor psychology tied to these developments will begin to reflect more directly in market price action this week.
Regarding the short-term outlook, as stated previously, we expect the rebound trend to extend into early this week, followed by renewed downside movement. This could lead to broader downward fluctuations as the week progresses. In particular, the late-week pullback phase may present an important strategic opportunity for position adjustments.
However, if the magnitude or volatility of this week’s daily declines materially exceeds our projected range, it could signal a meaningful shift in the broader outlook. For this reason, both the daily developments this week and the weekly closing structure will serve as a critical inflection point for determining the next directional phase of the market.
Given the elevated probability of volatility expansion, disciplined position management and prudent risk control are essential at this juncture.
SPRㅣ Stock Pretiming Report team.
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