Date: Sun, Mar 15, 2026 at 4:32 PM
Subject: Weekly Market Update: Approaching a Potential Rebound Inflection Point
Dear SPR Premium Subscribers,
Over the past week, the market experienced significant volatility along with a strong downward move. As a result, the weekly trend has closed firmly within the Bearish zone, confirming that a downward trend remains in progress.
However, as we enter the middle of March next week, the market will also approach a previously discussed timeframe where the probability of a rebound trend attempt may begin to increase.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate. After the U.S. stock market closed on March 13, the United States carried out an airstrike on Kharg Island, a critical Iranian oil export hub. The strike reportedly targeted military facilities located on the island—including missile storage sites, naval mine depots, and radar installations—which are closely linked to Iran’s energy export infrastructure. Iran has since declared its intention to retaliate, further intensifying instability in the region.
As a result, investor anxiety that has newly emerged from these developments is likely to be reflected in the market during the early part of next week. Based on the USMAI daily analysis, downside sentiment is still expected to remain relatively strong through Monday and Tuesday.
At present, there are no visible developments suggesting a near-term resolution to the conflict. Nevertheless, from a market structure perspective—particularly when analyzing the balance of buying and selling flows—the upcoming week appears likely to serve as an important inflection period for the market.
Current projections suggest that as we move toward late March, the market may begin to transition toward a rebound-oriented trend structure. In particular, whether a rebound trend becomes established by the end of March will be a critical factor in determining the broader short-term outlook. If such a transition is confirmed, a moderate rebound trend could potentially extend through late April.
In this context, short positions may gradually face increasing risk beginning next week, while from a long-position perspective, periods of market weakness may begin to present opportunities to consider selective dip-buying strategies. At this stage, the potential holding horizon for such long-position strategies is tentatively projected toward late April, subject to evolving market conditions.
Given the intensifying war situation, market volatility could increase again whenever new geopolitical developments emerge. At the same time, the market is approaching a period—roughly March 16 to March 23—where even relatively small positive developments could trigger a meaningful upside reaction in market sentiment.
For this reason, reviewing and preparing strategies that account for both continued volatility and potential rebound scenarios may be beneficial.
As always, this update reflects our analytical interpretation of current market conditions and should be considered informational in nature. Market developments may change quickly depending on economic data, policy decisions, or geopolitical events, and all investment decisions remain the responsibility of each individual investor.
If you have any questions regarding the analysis, please feel free to reach out at any time.
Thank you for your continued trust.
SPRㅣ Stock Pretiming Report team.
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