Date: Mon, Apr 13, 2026 at 11:59 AM
Subject: Weekly Market Update: Rebound Confirmed but Rising Short-Term Downside Risk.
Dear SPR Premium Subscribers,
This past Tuesday (April 7), ahead of the deadline set by President Trump regarding potential strikes on Iran’s energy and infrastructure facilities, the market faced a highly tense situation. Approximately one hour before the U.S. market close, a last-minute, Pakistan-mediated negotiation led to a two-week ceasefire agreement, which was confirmed after the close. This development triggered a sharp rally on April 8.
As a result, external geopolitical factors once again caused a rapid shift in market supply-demand dynamics. Following this, expectations for a potential resolution supported market sentiment, allowing the gains from April 8 to hold into the weekly close, especially as the first round of negotiations was scheduled for the weekend.
Accordingly, from a weekly trend perspective, the market has now clearly transitioned into a rebound trend.
However, due to the magnitude of the recent rally, the probability of further short-term upside has diminished significantly. Instead, there is now a higher likelihood of downward movement within the broader rebound structure, as the market absorbs the recent gains. This corrective behavior is expected to persist through late April.
Confidence in this outlook has increased following the outcome of the initial U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations held over the weekend, which reportedly ended without agreement. This development reintroduces uncertainty and raises the likelihood of renewed volatility, particularly at the start of next week, where a sharp reversal in buying and selling dynamics may occur.
Depending on the magnitude of next week’s price movements and downside pressure, there is a possibility that our forward outlook may require adjustment. However, based on the supply-demand structure observed so far, downside risk is expected to remain elevated through the end of April.
Looking ahead, as previously outlined, there is a high probability that the market may attempt another upward move from late April into early May, making this period potentially suitable for short-term, tactical long positioning (e.g., dip-buying strategies).
That said, we strongly caution that the downtrend expected to resume from early to mid-May could be significantly more severe, making it important to approach the late-April rebound strictly from a short-term tactical perspective rather than a longer-term positioning strategy.
If you have any questions regarding this analysis, please feel free to reach out at any time.
Thank you.
SPRㅣ Stock Pretiming Report team.
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