Date: Mon, Mar 23, 2026 at 11:22 AM
Subject: Weekly Market Update: Strengthening Downtrend Within Bearish Zone and Rebound Outlook
Dear SPR Premium Subscribers,
At the beginning of this week, the market showed a stronger-than-expected daily rebound trend, entering a sharp upward move earlier than anticipated. However, this momentum was not sustained.
Higher-than-expected PPI data, combined with escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices, significantly reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts. Although the Federal Reserve maintained its current rate policy at the recent FOMC meeting, the duration of the ongoing conflict and continued energy price volatility have increased overall market uncertainty. As a result, the market failed to sustain the rebound trend and instead closed the week with continued downward pressure.
In particular, toward the latter part of the week, there were signs of a potential rebound transition. However, on Friday, news suggesting a possible deployment of U.S. ground forces caused a sharp deterioration in investor sentiment, leading to an accelerated decline into the close.
Due to these developments, the market experienced heightened volatility throughout the week. Rather than forming the expected weekly consolidation (Doji-type) pattern, downside momentum expanded into the end of the week, resulting in a bearish weekly close. Consequently, within the Bearish zone, the intensity of the ongoing weekly downtrend has further strengthened.
Despite this strong downward movement, we maintain our previous outlook without change.
From a structural perspective, the weekly trend is approaching a critical phase as we move into mid-March. Beginning next week, the probability of downside stabilization is expected to increase meaningfully. The recent sharp decline is likely part of a transitional process rather than a continuation of a sustained breakdown.
By the end of next week, clearer confirmation of this stabilization process is expected. As previously projected, the market is likely to begin transitioning into a rebound trend starting from the week of March 16 to March 23.
Even if additional downside occurs in the near term, we advise against overreacting or engaging in panic-driven selling. Instead, a more measured approach—such as gradual accumulation during periods of weakness—may be more effective. In particular, short positions may become increasingly risky in this phase, and investors may consider preparing to gradually expand long-position exposure.
If the anticipated rebound trend is successfully established, it is expected to continue through late April, consistent with our prior outlook.
As always, this update is based on our analytical framework and is intended for informational purposes only. Market conditions may change rapidly due to economic developments, policy decisions, or geopolitical events, and all investment decisions remain the sole responsibility of each investor.
If you have any questions regarding the analysis, please feel free to reach out at any time.
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