Date: Mon, Mar 30, 2026 at 10:35 AM
Subject: Weekly Market Update: Volatility Surge and Critical Turning Point Outlook
Dear SPR Premium Subscribers,
During the fourth week of March (March 23–27), the U.S. equity market experienced extreme volatility as expectations of geopolitical risk easing in the Middle East conflicted with ongoing uncertainty.
At the beginning of the week, markets staged a relief rally, driven largely by former President Trump’s signal of a “deadline extension.” Oil prices declined sharply following his announcement that “very good and productive discussions” had taken place between the United States and Iran, with the deadline extended by five additional days. At that stage, the daily trend showed a high probability of transitioning into a rebound phase, and the weekly trend also demonstrated relatively constructive price action, successfully entering an anticipated rebound structure.
However, as the week progressed, market sentiment deteriorated rapidly. Continued reports of hardline rhetoric from Iran, along with ongoing missile exchanges between Israel and Iran, weighed heavily on investor confidence. Additionally, renewed statements from Trump indicating that all options—including ground troop deployment and strikes on infrastructure—remained on the table introduced further uncertainty. As negotiations appeared to stall, risk-off sentiment intensified ahead of the weekend, leading to a sharp decline in the latter part of the week.
As a result, the daily trend exhibited an unusual and rare pattern—reversing sharply from the verge of a rebound transition back into a downtrend despite being in an oversold condition. This type of movement is typically indicative of a sudden reactivation of selling pressure, often triggered by external catalysts, even as underlying selling momentum had already begun to weaken.
Historically, such extreme conditions—whether on the downside or upside—have frequently coincided with important inflection points, often marking the formation of medium- to long-term lows or highs. The market is currently at a critical crossroads: whether the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran escalates further or begins to move toward resolution will likely determine the next directional phase.
Despite the heightened uncertainty, we interpret the recent price action as part of a transitional process toward a potential trend reversal. We expect more visible signs of this transition to emerge in the near term.
Accordingly, we maintain our existing outlook that a weekly rebound trend is likely to develop throughout April. In particular, given the intensity of the recent sell-off, any signs of de-escalation in geopolitical tensions could trigger a sharp and rapid rebound due to a temporary imbalance in selling pressure.
In this environment, it is important to remain flexible and prepared for both continued volatility and potential upside reversals. This update reflects our analytical perspective based on current information and should be considered for informational purposes only. Market conditions may change rapidly depending on geopolitical developments, economic data, and policy decisions, and all investment decisions remain the responsibility of each investor.
We sincerely hope for a resolution to the ongoing conflict.
If you have any questions regarding the analysis, please feel free to reach out at any time.
Thank you for your continued trust.
SPRㅣ Stock Pretiming Report team.
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