Date: Sat, Apr 4, 2026 at 5:44 PM
Subject: Monthly Market Outlook Update: March Review and Revised Forward Guidance
Dear SPR Premium Subscribers,
We would like to provide an updated outlook for the U.S. equity market based on March performance and evolving conditions.
In March, the market experienced significant volatility בעקבות the outbreak of geopolitical conflict involving Israel, the United States, and Iran. Notably, the index quickly reached the lower bound of our previously projected monthly correction range near 6,500, entering a temporary oversold condition. This triggered buying interest during the month, leading to a monthly close around 6,800.
From a broader perspective, the monthly trend remains clearly within a correction phase. In the near term, the market is expected to fluctuate around current levels, with April through May likely to show highly volatile corrective movements, followed by a more gradual upward trend from June through August.
During this period, a temporary transition into a monthly uptrend may occur; however, its sustainability is expected to be low at this stage.
Our previous outlook anticipated a correction phase lasting until approximately June–July, followed by a broader uptrend in the second half of the year, particularly ahead of the U.S. midterm elections. However, due to the heightened volatility triggered by the March geopolitical conflict, this outlook has been significantly revised.
A key point to monitor is the potential renewed downside trend beginning around August, where the likelihood of entering a Bearish zone appears high under current conditions.
From an overall trend perspective, while short-term volatility has increased due to geopolitical factors, the market remains within a correction range. Accordingly, from a weekly trend standpoint, there is a high probability that the market will remain in the Bearish zone over the next 3–4 months (April through June), with a low likelihood of transitioning into a Bullish zone.
Although the June–August period may present conditions suggesting a transition from correction to an upward trend, the probability of a sustained bullish shift remains low or temporary.
Importantly, the rapid changes in buying and selling dynamics following the onset of the March conflict have weakened the outlook for maintaining a bullish monthly trend into the second half of this year and early next year.
This implies that, despite the market maintaining a Bullish zone for the past 35 months through March 2026, delivering approximately +66.5% cumulative gains, the likelihood of surpassing this level meaningfully is low. Even if higher levels are reached, such moves are likely to be temporary.
On the contrary, there is a higher probability that cumulative gains may gradually decline going forward. Therefore, for long-term investors, it would be prudent to adopt a more cautious approach or consider increasing cash positions.
At this stage—approximately one month since the onset of the conflict—we have updated our outlook to reflect the changes in market dynamics driven by shifts in buying and selling pressure. However, as the situation in the Middle East continues to evolve, market conditions may change rapidly.
We encourage you to closely follow our monthly updates, as further adjustments may be necessary depending on how geopolitical developments unfold.
If you have any questions regarding this analysis, please feel free to contact us at any time. We remain committed to helping you navigate this challenging market environment with clarity and discipline.
Thank you.
SPRㅣ Stock Pretiming Report team.
All forecasts are probabilistic and subject to change as market conditions evolve. Investment decisions remain solely the responsibility of each investor.)
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