Date: Sat, Jun 27, 2026 at 11:14 PM
Subject: Weekly Market Outlook Update: Position Rebalancing Phase Extends Into July
Dear SPR Premium Subscribers,
The U.S. stock market is now approaching the end of June, and with next week marking the transition into July, the market is entering another important turning point.
As mentioned in our previous updates, the market experienced a rapid upward surge following the ceasefire-related MOU agreement between the United States and Iran. This sudden rally created a significant imbalance in buying and selling flows, resulting in excessive concentration of buying momentum across the market.
Following this move, the daily market structure entered a stabilization phase in which buying and selling flows began gradually rebalancing. Our outlook anticipated that this process would unfold through a relatively constructive range-bound decline within an overall consolidation structure.
Additionally, we identified this period as an extremely important repositioning phase ahead of the next potential weekly bullish trend transition.
As reflected in last week’s USMAI Weekly Report, we expected this stabilization process to continue through this week, with the broader weekly structure likely closing with a bearish weekly candle characterized by overall downside movement.
Following this corrective phase, our prior outlook projected that the market would begin transitioning back into a weekly bullish trend beginning next week, leading to a relatively constructive upward trend environment.
However, actual market conditions evolved more aggressively than anticipated.
This week, heavy profit-taking within technology stocks, renewed concerns surrounding excessive AI-related market enthusiasm, and even panic-driven liquidation resulting from extreme positioning all contributed to a significantly deeper decline than originally expected.
As a result of these developments, the market now appears likely to enter a new short-term stabilization phase — this time centered around rebalancing oversold conditions rather than excessive buying concentration.
We currently expect this stabilization process to continue for approximately the next two weeks, while next week itself is likely to show an overall upward recovery flow into the weekly close.
Consequently, the timing of the anticipated weekly bullish trend transition is now projected to be delayed by approximately three weeks, shifting from our original outlook toward the second week of July.
During this transitional period, there remains a possibility that portions of the market temporarily enter the Bearish Zone. Furthermore, depending on the magnitude of volatility during the stabilization process, there is now an increased possibility that the market may initially form a rebound trend rather than an immediate sustainable bullish trend.
From a strategic perspective, we believe the coming one to two weeks may continue to provide important opportunities for portfolio repositioning and preparation ahead of a broader upward market structure expected during the July through early-August period, whether through a bullish trend or a rebound-driven upward move.
Looking further ahead from a longer-term perspective, when combining both the monthly and broader structural outlooks, we currently believe that downside pressure beginning around early August has a high probability of evolving from a weekly corrective trend into a more substantial downward trend structure.
Accordingly, investors may need to begin preparing strategies for a potential weekly Bearish Zone transition beginning around late July.
We will continue to provide additional updates as the broader outlook becomes more visible and refined over time.
If you have any questions regarding this analysis, please feel free to contact us at any time.
Thank you.
SPRㅣ Stock Pretiming Report team.
All forecasts are probabilistic and subject to change as market conditions evolve. Investment decisions remain solely the responsibility of each investor.)
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