Premium Subscriber Insights: SPR Exclusive Insights (Delayed Release)
Date: Mon, Aug 3, 2026 at 10:21 AM
Subject: Weekly Market Outlook: Improving Geopolitical Conditions Strengthen the Probability of a Short-Term Trend Reversal
Dear SPR Premium Subscribers,
The U.S. equity market remained highly volatile throughout this week. As outlined in last week's Weekly Outlook, price action initially reflected elements of both Scenario 1 and Scenario 2. However, during the latter half of the week, aggressive bargain buying emerged following the recent sharp decline, allowing the market to recover and close the week on a much firmer footing.
As a result, this week's market behavior ultimately aligned more closely with Scenario 1, suggesting that downside momentum is beginning to stabilize.
Another important development occurred heading into the weekend.
Following President Trump's comments regarding potential strikes on Iranian power plants, infrastructure, and energy facilities, both sides unexpectedly announced that they would resume negotiations aimed at reaching a nuclear agreement and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, further military action has been temporarily suspended, marking the first meaningful sign of easing geopolitical tensions in recent weeks.
Although uncertainty remains, the overall external environment is beginning to improve. Combined with the return of bargain-buying after the recent selloff, overall market conditions have become noticeably more constructive.
Accordingly, the probability of Scenario 1, which we discussed in last week's report, has increased significantly. We now believe there is a high likelihood that the market is approaching an important upside inflection point over the course of this week and next week.
The market's behavior next week will be particularly important.
If price action remains within the expected range—or preferably closes the week with additional gains—it would provide strong confirmation that Scenario 1 has become the dominant path for the market going forward.
Compared with our previous outlook, we now expect any potential recovery phase to last somewhat longer than originally projected, potentially extending through the end of August.
Under this scenario, the weekly trend could regain sufficient strength to re-enter the Bullish Zone, signaling a renewed intermediate-term uptrend.
However, investors should also remain mindful of the broader trend.
While improving geopolitical conditions could support a meaningful rally during August, we continue to believe that this advance is more likely to represent a short-term recovery within the broader market cycle, rather than the beginning of a sustained long-term bull market.
Our broader outlook remains unchanged. As discussed in our monthly analysis, the market is still likely to transition back into a corrective or bearish phase around late August, making this rally an opportunity to participate selectively while maintaining disciplined risk management.
For that reason, we believe investors should continue to approach the market with a tactical, short-term strategy while remaining prepared for another potential shift in trend as August progresses.
SPR will continue to monitor both market conditions and geopolitical developments closely and will provide timely updates whenever meaningful changes occur.
If you have any questions regarding this analysis, please feel free to contact us at any time.
Thank you for your continued trust and support of SPR Premium.
SPRㅣ Stock Pretiming Report team.
All forecasts are probabilistic and subject to change as market conditions evolve. Investment decisions remain solely the responsibility of each investor.)
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