Premium Subscriber Insights: SPR Exclusive Insights (Delayed Release)
Date: Mon, Sep 7, 2026 at 3:12 PM
Subject: August Weekly Review & September Market Outlook | SPR Premium
Hello SPR Premium Subscribers,
With this week marking the completion of our August Weekly Reports, we would like to take this opportunity to review how the market developed throughout August and compare the actual outcome at the end of the month with the outlook we provided at the beginning of August.
Some members have sent us very positive feedback, noting that our August outlook was highly accurate and that the frequent updates to our expectations as major market-moving events occurred were extremely helpful in navigating the market.
At the same time, we have also received very different feedback from other members who felt that our August outlook was completely inaccurate.
We believe this difference in interpretation may largely stem from a lack of alignment regarding what we intended to communicate through our analysis and reports.
Therefore, we would like to use this opportunity to review the August market movement chronologically on a weekly basis so that we can better align our perspective with yours.
1. The First Week of August: A Major Upside Move
The U.S. stock market experienced a significant rally during the first week of August.
The primary catalyst was a series of statements made by President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent over the preceding weekend and during Monday's trading session, suggesting that an agreement with Iran regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program could be imminent.
These developments triggered a sharp decline in oil prices and raised expectations that tensions between the United States and Iran could be resolved, resulting in a strong market rally.
This unexpected development became an important turning point that significantly altered the short-term market environment we had initially expected for August.
At that time, our broader August outlook was that even if additional upside occurred, the upside would likely be limited or temporary, with the market expected to remain within a broad range through the end of August.
As you can see in the attached USMAI_2 Aug, 2026 chart, the market ultimately remained within a broad sideways trading range through the end of August, broadly consistent with our initial August outlook.
2. The Middle and Latter Parts of August: Persistent Uncertainty
As shown in the USMAI_1 Aug, 2026 chart, after the initial announcement that an agreement appeared to be imminent, uncertainty returned as Iran stated that it had only been holding discussions with Oman regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and that no agreement had been reached with the United States.
The conflicting statements from Iran and the United States continued to create uncertainty in the market. Nevertheless, the market continued to fluctuate within the ranges we had anticipated in our weekly outlooks.
Whenever inflation-related economic data raised concerns about persistent price pressures and increased expectations for higher interest rates, the market experienced somewhat larger-than-expected declines.
As time passed, the possibility of a U.S.-Iran agreement increasingly faded, while military tensions escalated and oil prices remained elevated. This created an environment in which stable buying and selling flows were difficult to maintain, as the market remained exposed to the unpredictable nature of the ongoing geopolitical conflict.
As a result, our September outlook remained subject to a relatively high degree of uncertainty.
Nevertheless, the market ultimately closed August within the range we had anticipated. Therefore, as of the end of this week, we continue to maintain the September outlook that was established at the beginning of August.
Despite the continuous uncertainty throughout August, the market experienced a notable shift during the final week of the month.
On September 3, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated at a Reuters NEXT event that recent data was showing signs of disinflation and that, if the August inflation data continued to confirm this trend, he would be inclined to support keeping interest rates at their current level at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting.
This statement triggered a significant change in market expectations and helped the market finish the week on a stronger note.
3. The Three Major Variables That Shaped August
Looking back at August, three major factors played a critical role in determining the direction of buying and selling flows:
1. The unpredictable nature of the U.S.-Iran conflict
2. Inflation uncertainty driven by energy prices
3. Treasury yields and expectations for Federal Reserve policy
These factors repeatedly changed the balance between buying and selling pressure throughout the month, ultimately resulting in a market environment characterized more by range-bound movement than by a clearly defined directional trend.
Now, as we enter September, our outlook remains consistent with the forecast we established at the beginning of August.
We currently expect the market to reach an important inflection point around the September FOMC meeting, with the potential for a renewed upward trend to develop thereafter.
However, this outlook remains conditional.
The three factors that have the potential to rapidly change the market's buying and selling dynamics remain:
The development of the U.S.-Iran conflict
Oil prices
The September FOMC decision and the tone of Federal Reserve guidance
Any unexpected development in these areas could alter the current market outlook.
At this point, however, the important point is that the underlying market supply-and-demand flow has already developed a directional bias toward a potential September recovery.
The key question is whether that underlying flow will remain intact or be disrupted by an unexpected external event.
This is an area that we, too, cannot know in advance.
This is also an important point to keep in mind when interpreting the Pretiming analysis.
Pretiming does not attempt to predict the specific events that will create market movements. Instead, our analysis focuses on the observable buying and selling decisions ultimately made by investors as a result of those events.
In other words, we do not need to predict exactly what will happen with the U.S.-Iran conflict, oil prices, inflation, or Federal Reserve policy in order to analyze the market.
What matters most to our methodology is how investors actually respond to those developments and how those responses are reflected in the resulting supply-and-demand dynamics.
Therefore, we kindly ask you to keep this distinction in mind when reviewing our reports and interpreting our forecasts.
If there is any part of this analysis that you disagree with, or if you have any questions regarding our methodology or outlook, please feel free to contact us at any time.
Thank you for your continued support of SPR Premium.
SPRㅣ Stock Pretiming Report team.
All forecasts are probabilistic and subject to change as market conditions evolve. Investment decisions remain solely the responsibility of each investor.)
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