Date: Mon, Feb 2, 2026 at 4:32 PM
Subject: January 2026 Monthly USMAI Pretiming Report & Long-Term Market Outlook
Dear SPR Premium Subscribers,
Starting in 2026, we will be providing a Monthly Pretiming Report at the close of each month.
Through monthly-based long-term trend analysis and forward-looking insights, our goal is to support you in building effective investment strategies and ultimately achieving consistent and successful investment performance.
To fully understand the January 2026 Monthly Analysis, it is important to first review the long-term outlooks we previously shared during 2025.
1. February 2025 Long-Term Outlook
We recommend reviewing the “Monthly USMAI Pretiming Analysis Report – February 2025.”
For subscribers who joined after February, we will resend the original email for reference.
This period coincided with the announcement of tariff-related executive orders targeting Canada, Mexico, and China, followed by the April 2 declaration of “Liberation Day,” when broad-based and reciprocal tariffs were announced against major trading partners. As many of you will recall, this was a time of extreme uncertainty and volatility in the equity markets.
In the February 2025 USMAI Pretiming Report, we projected that a corrective trend would begin in February and persist through May, with elevated selling pressure increasing the probability of the monthly trend entering the Bearish zone.
We further anticipated that from May–June through December, the market would broadly trend upward, re-entering the Bullish zone and resuming an upward trend. At that time, the exact timing of the next corrective phase after this advance remained undetermined, while the overall outlook for the remainder of 2025 remained constructive.
2. November 2025 Long-Term Outlook
In November 2025, we shared the following long-term perspective, which we encourage you to revisit if possible:
“We expect the market to form a major top between late December 2025 and January 2026. Following this peak, the market is likely to enter a broad corrective phase lasting several months, potentially through at least March–April. During this period, sharp declines may occur on the daily chart, and price action may become sluggish and irregular over an extended time frame. This long-term outlook has been monitored and refined over several months, and our conviction remains unchanged. As the timing of this transition approaches, we are sharing these insights with our premium subscribers.”
3. January 2026 Long-Term Outlook Update
In January 2026, we further communicated the following:
“Although the December rally was weaker than initially anticipated, strong upward momentum is likely to persist into early January (weeks 1–2), allowing the short-term advance to continue. However, as emphasized in our prior long-term outlooks, the major market peak expected between December 2025 and January 2026 may serve as the starting point for a broad corrective phase lasting several months.
Specifically, following this peak, both weekly and daily trends are likely to shift downward, potentially extending the corrective process through March–April 2026. Given this backdrop, we believe it is prudent to prepare defensive strategies in anticipation of rising downside risk and volatility.
Depending on the magnitude and structure of the observed market moves, adjustments to the long-term outlook may become necessary. Accordingly, we advise investors to maintain a disciplined and cautious approach, rather than reacting excessively to early-January strength.”
January 2026 Monthly USMAI Pretiming Report – Key Conclusions
Based on the January 2026 monthly close, the monthly trend has now definitively transitioned into a corrective phase. Looking ahead, we expect a broadly downward corrective flow to persist through April–May.
(A monthly corrective trend implies that the weekly trend is likely to remain within the Bearish zone.)
From a monthly perspective, January 2026 appears to have marked a major market peak, and at this stage, there is no clear signal indicating when this high may be decisively surpassed.
A critical inflection window lies between May and July 2026. Depending on the strength of any recovery during this period, the outlook for the second half of the year may require revision. However, based on currently available data, the prevailing expectation is that downward pressure will continue into the second half of 2026.
In particular, should the trend decisively roll over into a sustained downtrend after July–August, the market could experience a very strong and accelerated decline.
Beginning in February, selling pressure is expected to dominate overall market behavior, making a conservative, risk-focused approach and defensive investment strategy especially important.
Please note that monthly analysis and forecasts are based on fully closed monthly data, rather than reacting to daily news, headlines, or short-term policy developments. As such, outlook adjustments will be reflected through monthly updates, and we encourage you to refer to each newly released Monthly Pretiming Report for the most up-to-date perspective.
If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach out. We will do our best to provide clear and helpful guidance to support your understanding and decision-making.
Thank you for your continued trust and support.
SPRㅣ Stock Pretiming Report team.
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