Date: Thu, Apr 23, 2026 at 2:18 PM
Subject: Weekly Market Update: Rising Volatility Amid U.S.–Iran Developments
Dear SPR Premium Subscribers,
We are currently observing heightened volatility in the market at the start of this week, largely driven by geopolitical developments between the United States and Iran.
Following the breakdown of the first round of ceasefire negotiations, markets initially responded positively to signals suggesting the possibility of a second round of talks. Former President Trump publicly communicated optimistic expectations via social media, even hinting at a potential agreement, which helped sustain upward momentum in equities.
In particular, Iran’s announcement to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz led to a sharp decline in oil prices and was met with strong bullish sentiment across the market. However, this optimism proved short-lived. In response, Trump stated that the U.S. would further tighten control over vessels heading toward Iran and maintain restrictions on the Strait until a formal agreement is reached. This triggered a strong backlash from Iran.
Within a single day, Iran reversed its stance and declared a renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz, significantly increasing uncertainty. Despite maintaining a nominally constructive diplomatic tone toward a second round of negotiations, Iran set the removal of U.S. control over the Strait as a precondition, resulting in a continued escalation in tensions.
As the April 22 ceasefire expiration approached, Iran ultimately declined participation on April 21, leading to the cancellation of the second round of talks. In response, Trump warned of potential military strikes targeting Iran’s infrastructure, including power plants and bridges, should negotiations fail. This led to a sharp late-session selloff in U.S. equities.
However, a notable reversal occurred after market close. Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire, stating that military action would be postponed until Iran presents a unified negotiation framework. This announcement triggered a strong rebound in U.S. markets on April 22.
These rapid developments underscore how external, non-market factors are currently driving sharp fluctuations in buying and selling flows. The market’s sensitivity to news events indicates a lack of stability and continuity in underlying demand, reducing the reliability of price movements driven by short-term sentiment shifts.
Given the elevated uncertainty, we recommend a cautious and disciplined approach to market participation.
From a short-term outlook perspective, while volatility remains high, the current market sentiment—reflected in the closing price action as of April 22—suggests a relatively constrained trading range for April 23, with modest upside and downside fluctuations.
Looking ahead, there is a strong upward trend that a more decisive upward trend could begin as early as Friday, April 24. If this momentum materializes, we anticipate a sustained bullish trend extending into the mid-to-late part of next week.
Please feel free to reach out if you have any questions regarding this analysis.
SPRㅣ Stock Pretiming Report team.
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