Premium Subscriber Insights: SPR Exclusive Insights (Delayed Release)
Date: Mon, Sep 28, 2026 at 10:12 AM
Subject: SPR U.S. Market Outlook | Weekly Uptrend Extension Confirmed, but October Correction Risk Remains
Dear SPR Premium Subscribers,
Following last Friday’s Triple Witching Day, the significant shift in buying and selling flows led the weekly trend to close with a revised outlook indicating an extension of the uptrend.
As previously noted, however, the reliability of this sudden change in the weekly outlook was initially considered low. Therefore, it was important to observe whether the underlying supply-demand flow would remain supportive and whether the market would develop in a manner consistent with an extended uptrend during this week.
This week, the possibility of diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran developed rapidly, with the likelihood of a meeting at the United Nations increasing. As actual diplomatic discussions began to take place, the market gained a greater sense of relief and maintained a relatively stable overall flow throughout the week.
In particular, the market reacted sharply on Monday, resulting in a strong rally. Following this initial surge, the market reached its short-term high around Monday and Tuesday, then continued a daily correction and stabilization process through Friday as the buying and selling flows gradually normalized.
At present, the market appears to be placing greater weight on the possibility of a diplomatic resolution between the United States and Iran, and a corresponding buying/selling supply-demand base has formed and remained in place.
As a result, the weekly trend has maintained the revised outlook from last week, with the extension of the uptrend now appearing to have begun. Based on the current supply-demand structure, the uptrend is expected to continue for approximately the next 1–2 weeks.
More importantly, the supply-demand conditions observed this week have provided additional confirmation of the underlying market flow. As a result, the reliability of the current weekly trend outlook has improved compared with last week.
However, there is an important development to consider. Following the market close on Friday, President Trump rejected Iran’s proposed seven-day peace initiative, which means that the outlook may remain subject to changes depending on how the negotiations develop.
Since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict, there have already been several instances in which negotiations and statements have shifted repeatedly. As a result, the market has developed a considerable degree of fatigue toward repeated changes in messaging.
The key issue from this point forward is whether the current diplomatic efforts will lead to visible and tangible progress.
If the negotiations fail to develop into meaningful results as time passes, the market could gradually lose its current upward momentum, similar to previous instances, potentially leading to renewed downside movement. Therefore, it will be important to consider the possibility of market fluctuations resulting from changes in related news and developments when managing market exposure.
Based on the current weekly trend structure, even if the upward movement continues, the current uptrend is expected to remain in place only through approximately the first week of October. Around early October, the probability of a transition into a correction phase appears to be significantly higher.
Accordingly, it may be appropriate to approach the next 1–2 weeks as a potential short-term high period for the weekly market flow, while closely monitoring changes in the underlying supply-demand conditions.
There is also a more significant downside risk that should not be overlooked. If the United States and Iran once again reverse their positions, diplomatic negotiations fail, and military attacks resume, previously delayed selling pressure from investors who have continued holding positions through the uncertainty could emerge rapidly. In such a situation, the market could experience a much stronger correction than currently expected.
For this reason, while the current weekly outlook remains constructive, it is important to remain aware of the potential for a sharp change in direction if diplomatic progress fails to produce tangible results.
We will continue to closely monitor the development of U.S.-Iran negotiations, market supply-demand conditions, and changes in the weekly and daily trends.
If you have any questions regarding this analysis, please feel free to contact us at any time.
Thank you.
SPRㅣ Stock Pretiming Report team.
All forecasts are probabilistic and subject to change as market conditions evolve. Investment decisions remain solely the responsibility of each investor.)
No comments:
Post a Comment