Meta Description: TQQQ outlook after the Nasdaq-100’s worst day since June: AI spending fears, Fed hike risk and how 3x daily leverage works. What to know before our Pretiming Report.
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TQQQ, the fund that seeks three times the Nasdaq-100’s daily move, enters our coverage window right after the index’s worst day since June. On Friday the Nasdaq-100 fell 3.46%, and a fund built to triple daily moves was designed to fall roughly 10%. The trigger was a week of earnings that forced one hard question: is the AI spending boom paying off? With the Fed leaning toward another hike, that question matters more than usual. Here is what to know before our Pretiming Report arrives.
What Happened to the Nasdaq-100 This Week
The damage came from the biggest names. Alphabet fell about 12% on Thursday after missing revenue and earnings expectations and reporting negative free cash flow of roughly $9 billion. Amazon’s quarter then came in below estimates, with earnings of $1.89 per share and revenue of $201.9 billion, while quarterly capital spending reached about $77 billion, more than double the $35 billion a year earlier. Intel dropped close to 30% on a weak outlook, and Meta and Tesla have also been pressured by heavy AI spending.
By Friday’s close, the Nasdaq-100 stood at 28,384.85. The S&P 500 lost 1.82%, and the Nasdaq Composite finished its worst month since March 2025.
The message was less “AI demand is fading” and more “show us the return on the money.” Picture a restaurant owner who keeps adding kitchens. Customers are still coming, but each new kitchen has to prove it pays for itself.
How 3x Daily Leverage Changes the Math
TQQQ aims to deliver three times the Nasdaq-100’s return for a single day, then resets. That creates three things worth understanding.
Drops get amplified. Friday’s 3.46% decline equals roughly a 10% move for a 3x fund by design. In early June, when the Nasdaq-100 fell about 4.8%, TQQQ dropped about 14.3% in one session.
The daily reset creates “volatility decay.” Say the index rises 10% one day and falls 9.09% the next, ending flat. A 3x fund gains 30%, then loses 27.27%, and ends down about 5.5%. The choppier the market, the wider the gap between 3x the index’s total return and what the fund actually delivers.
Deep drawdowns are part of the record. TQQQ’s maximum drawdown reached roughly 81% in 2022, according to ProShares data.
What Wall Street Thinks About the Nasdaq-100
A fund like TQQQ has no analyst price targets, so the views that matter are strategists’ takes on the index and the AI trade. They are split:
- UBS: In mid-October research, it described the chip selloff as a reassessment of earnings expectations, not proof that AI demand is weakening. It forecasts about $900 billion of AI-related spending in 2026.
- RBC: It has turned more cautious on tech after the October selloff.
- JPMorgan: It has warned about flash-crash risk in crowded AI trades and about valuation multiples compressing.
- Goldman Sachs: In August, it argued the momentum reversal could persist unless Big Tech lifts its forward revenue guidance.
The optimists see spending as a sign of demand. The cautious camp sees a bill that investors have not yet seen repaid.
The Macro Backdrop
The Fed held rates at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28 in a 10–2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferring a hike. That followed September’s quarter-point increase, the first since 2023. Markets have leaned toward another hike at the December 9 meeting, and the 10-year Treasury yield has been hovering above 5%.
Higher yields reduce what a growth company’s future profits are worth today, which is why the Nasdaq-100 is so sensitive to the Fed. A 3x fund magnifies that sensitivity.
Cost and Valuation
TQQQ carries an expense ratio of about 0.82%, and the cost of maintaining leverage also weighs on returns. Earnings multiples apply to the index rather than the fund. As a reference point, in late March, when the Nasdaq-100 last entered a correction, its forward price-to-earnings ratio had fallen to about 21 from 28 at the October 2025 peak, per Bloomberg data. We could not verify the current multiple. This week’s selloff is about whether AI spending earns a return, and bulls argue demand remains intact.
What to Watch Before the Next Report
- Earnings next week: Apple, Palantir and AMD report. Watch whether their guidance and free cash flow calm the spending worry or revive it.
- Fed and data: The October jobs report is due in early November, and the Fed meets again December 9. Watch whether the data keeps hike expectations in place.
- Volatility: After a 3.46% daily drop, index swings of 1% to 2% would mean 3% to 6% swings in TQQQ.
Conclusion
TQQQ is a sharp tool being tested by a sharp market. The index is wrestling with AI payoffs and a hawkish Fed, and the 3x structure turns every move into a bigger one.
One-line takeaway: When the Nasdaq-100 trembles, TQQQ shakes three times as hard, and this week the tremor came from its biggest names.
Check back for the upcoming SPR Pretiming Report on TQQQ, where we’ll update the technical outlook.
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